Arbitrum ARB

ARB has moved +1.59% in the last day, -21.01% over the week, and -21.01% over the past month. The all-time high of $2.39 was set 877 days ago, leaving ARB at 3.4% of that peak. Reclaiming the record would require a 2,835% advance from here. With both the weekly and monthly trends negative, the path of least resistance remains lower for now.

Volatility & risk

Realised volatility for ARB is currently elevated, with a 7-day annualised reading near 113%. That is roughly middle-of-the-pack for a large-cap crypto asset. Traders should expect double-digit percentage swings within a single week to be normal rather than exceptional.

Liquidity & trading depth

Over the last 24 hours roughly $73.23M changed hands, equal to about 14.4% of the circulating market value turning over in a day. That is adequate turnover for a coin of this size, though large orders may still move the price. Liquidity health scores 52/100 on our composite, which blends 24-hour volume against market capitalisation.

Correlation with Bitcoin & markets

Over the past week, ARB's hourly returns show a correlation of 0.75 with Bitcoin. That is a tight link — ARB has effectively traded as a high-beta Bitcoin proxy, offering little diversification when BTC sells off. Correlation regimes shift, so this figure is a snapshot rather than a constant.

On-chain value & TVL

The DeFi ecosystem built on or powered by Arbitrum currently secures roughly $1.25B in total value locked (TVL) — the dollar value of assets deposited in its protocols. Against a market capitalisation of $509.17M, that gives a market-cap-to-TVL ratio of 0.41. A ratio below 1 means ARB's market value is smaller than the capital its ecosystem secures — a configuration value investors often read as relatively cheap, though it can also signal a token whose price has lagged its on-chain usage. TVL is a useful gauge of real economic usage, but it rises and falls with token prices, so read it alongside the trend in deposits rather than the dollar figure alone.

Our outlook blends three independent lenses. The technical model reads momentum as bearish and frames a near-term band of $0.0700 to $0.0879. The statistical model, driven by realised volatility, centres near $0.0763 with a one-horizon spread of $0.00814300 to $0.1824. The relative model, anchored to how comparable top-100 assets have performed (median -9.22% over the past week), points to $0.0712 to $0.0858. Blending the three yields the horizon-by-horizon ensemble in the table below. Model confidence is Medium, reflecting data completeness and liquidity. These are probabilistic scenarios generated from market data — not guarantees, and not financial advice.

Arbitrum has a circulating supply of 6,255,821,492 ARB. Supply is hard-capped at 10,000,000,000 tokens, meaning 62.6% already exists and only 3,744,178,508 remain to be issued. A meaningful share is still to be released, so emission schedules are worth tracking for dilution. Fully diluted valuation and circulating market cap can diverge sharply when a large share of tokens is still locked, so both are worth comparing before drawing conclusions about value.

Arbitrum (ARB) is the 102nd-ranked cryptocurrency tracked on TBN Express, with live pricing, derived risk metrics and a multi-model outlook refreshed throughout the day. The profile below combines project information with our own quantitative read of how ARB is trading right now.