Key Insights:
- Long-term Bitcoin holders have realised more profits this cycle than during the 2021 bull run.
- Profit-taking has coincided with slowing network activity and shows at a late-cycle phase.
- Despite sell pressure, Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend remains intact with strong institutional inflows.
Bitcoin profit-taking has surged to levels unseen in the last decade. This trend is even stronger than that of the 2021 bull run. Data from Glassnode shows that long-term holders or LTHs have realised profits of more than 3.27 million BTC in this cycle alone.
Historic Profit-Taking and Market Sentiment
The level of realised profits shows more than just investor gains. It also indicates that sentiment is changing among Bitcoin’s strongest holders. Speaking of dollar terms, the realised profits are massive compared to past cycles.
For perspective, Bitcoin’s average price in 2015 was around $1,000. Today, these prices are nearly 100 times that level, which makes the sell-side pressure far greater in real value.
Analysts note that this wave of selling is in line with a drop in network activity. Glassnode reports that the monthly average of adjusted transfer volume fell 13%, from $26.7 billion to $23.2 billion.
At the same time,yptoQuant data shows the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio at its lowest level since November 2021, which shows weaker speculative demand.
Signs of a Late-Cycle Phase
Several market watchers indicate the current bull cycle is close to its highs. According to analyst Cryptobirb, the cycle started after the last halving, which is already 93% complete.
Based on historical patterns, he expects a final rally or “blow-off top” to occur between late October and mid-November.
While this outlook favors caution, other indicators paint a less bearish picture. Market strategist Axel Adler Jr. pointed to the Adjusted MVRV ratio, which has fallen back to neutral levels.
He noted that the market is consolidating recent gains rather than reversing its uptrend.
Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez recently noted that the cryptocurrency’s supply in profit is now showing a trend into a downtrend phase.
Market Movements Reflect Consolidation
Bitcoin’s price action has downward support. After reaching an all-time high of $124,167 on August 14, the cryptocurrency has since corrected. Over the last day, BTC has edged up by 1%.
However, the cryptocurrency is still down by 2.3% for the week, 6.7% over two weeks, and 7.1% for the month. Even so, Bitcoin is still up 76% compared with a year ago. This shows the strength of the general market trend despite the short-term volatility.
Over the last day, BTC has edged up by 1%. However, the cryptocurrency is still down by 2.3% for the week, 6.7% over two weeks, and 7.1% for the month. Even so, Bitcoin is still up 76% compared with a year ago. This shows the strength of the general market trend despite the short-term volatility.
The sell pressure has been strong, with around 100,000 BTC recently put up for sale. This includes 80,000 BTC listed intensely and another 26,000 BTC from previously inactive wallets.
Yet the market has absorbed this supply without major structural issues. This shows how much liquidity has improved.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional participation have also helped balance these large sell-offs. Trading volumes are currently high across major platforms and have added strength to the market.
A Dual Signal for Market Timing and Resilience
Investors should note that the surge in Bitcoin profit-taking is both a warning and a reminder. On one hand, it shows that long-term holders are locking in gains at massive levels.
This tends to happen late in cycles. On the other hand, the market has absorbed heavy selling without a severe breakdown.
It is important to be cautious in the short term. However, the general uptrend is still intact, with essentially institutional inflows and a stronger trading infrastructure.
Investors in this market should track metrics like realised profits, network activity, and ETF flows. These signals can provide early warnings of market shifts.
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